Google and Twitter Help Track Influenza Outbreaks

This flu season could be the longest and worst in years. So far 18 children have died from flu-related symptoms, and 2,257 people have been hospitalized.

Yesterday Boston Mayor Thomas Menino declared a citywide public health emergency, with roughly 700 confirmed flu cases—ten times the number the city saw last year.

"It arrived five weeks early, and it's shaping up to be a pretty bad flu season," said Lyn Finelli, who heads the Influenza Outbreak Response Team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Boston isn't alone. According to the CDC, 41 states have reported widespread influenza activity, and in the last week of 2012, 5.6 percent of doctor's office visits across the country were for influenza-like illnesses. The severity likely stems from this year's predominant virus: H3N2, a strain known to severely affect children and the elderly. Finelli notes that the 2003-2004 flu season, also dominated by H3N2, produced similar numbers. (See "Are You Prepped? The Influenza Roundup.")

In tracking the flu, physicians and public health officials have a host of new surveillance tools at their disposal thanks to crowdsourcing and social media. Such tools let them get a sense of the flu's reach in real time rather than wait weeks for doctor's offices and state health departments to report in.

Pulling data from online sources "is no different than getting information on over-the-counter medication or thermometer purchases [to track against an outbreak]," said Philip Polgreen, an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa.

The most successful of these endeavors, Google Flu Trends, analyzes flu-related Internet search terms like "flu symptoms" or "flu medication" to estimate flu activity in different areas. It tracks flu outbreaks globally.

Another tool, HealthMap, which is sponsored by Boston Children's Hospital, mines online news reports to track outbreaks in real time. Sickweather draws from posts on Twitter and Facebook that mention the flu for its data.

People can be flu-hunters themselves with Flu Near You, a project that asks people to report their symptoms once a week. So far more than 38,000 people have signed up for this crowdsourced virus tracker. And of course, there's an app for that.

Both Finelli, a Flu Near You user, and Polgreen find the new tools exciting but agree that they have limits. "It's not as if we can replace traditional surveillance. It's really just a supplement, but it's timely," said Polgreen.

When people have timely warning that there's flu in the community, they can get vaccinated, and hospitals can plan ahead. According to a 2012 study in Clinical Infectious Diseases, Google Flu Trends has shown promise predicting emergency room flu traffic. Some researchers are even using a combination of the web database and weather data to predict when outbreaks will peak.

As for the current flu season, it's still impossible to predict week-to-week peaks and troughs. "We expect that it will last a few more weeks, but we can never tell how bad it's going to get," said Finelli.

Hospitals are already taking precautionary measures. One Pennsylvania hospital erected a separate emergency room tent for additional flu patients. This week, several Illinois hospitals went on "bypass," alerting local first responders that they're at capacity—due to an uptick in both flu and non-flu cases—so that patients will be taken to alternative facilities, if possible.

In the meantime, the CDC advises vaccination, first and foremost. On the bright side, the flu vaccine being used this year is a good match for the H3N2 strain. Though Finelli cautions, "Sometimes drifted strains pop up toward the end of the season."

It looks like there won't be shortages of seasonal flu vaccine like there have been in past years. HealthMap sports a Flu Vaccine Finder to make it a snap to find a dose nearby. And if the flu-shot line at the neighborhood pharmacy seems overwhelming, more health departments and clinics are offering drive-through options.

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Judge: Holmes Can Face Trial for Aurora Shooting

Jan 10, 2013 8:45pm

(Arapahoe County Sheriff/AP Photo)

In a ruling that comes as little surprise, the judge overseeing the Aurora, Colo., theater massacre has ordered that there is enough evidence against James Holmes to proceed to a trial.

In an order posted late Thursday, Judge William Sylvester wrote that “the People have carried their burden of proof and have established that there is probable cause to believe that Defendant committed the crimes charged.”

The ruling came after a three-day preliminary hearing this week that revealed new details about how Holmes allegedly planned for and carried out the movie theater shooting, including how investigators say he amassed an arsenal of guns and ammunition, how he booby-trapped his apartment to explode, and his bizarre behavior after his arrest.

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Holmes is charged with 166 counts, including murder, attempted murder and other charges related to the July 20 shooting that left 12 people dead and 58 wounded by gunfire. An additional 12 people suffered non-gunshot injuries.

One of the next legal steps is an arraignment, at which Holmes will enter a plea. The arraignment was originally expected to take place Friday morning.

Judge Sylvester indicated through a court spokesman that he would allow television and still cameras into the courtroom, providing the outside world the first images of Holmes since a July 23 hearing. Plans for cameras in court, however, were put on hold Thursday afternoon.

“The defense has notified the district attorney that it is not prepared to proceed to arraignment in this case by Friday,” wrote public defenders Daniel King, Tamara Brady and Kristen Nelson Thursday afternoon in a document objecting to cameras in court.

A hearing in the case will still take place Friday morning. In his order, Judge Sylvester said it should technically be considered an arraignment, but noted the defense has requested a continuance.  Legal experts expect the judge will grant the continuance, delaying the arraignment and keeping cameras out of court for now.

Sylvester also ordered that Holmes be held without bail.

Holmes’ attorneys have said in court that the former University of Colorado neuroscience student is mentally ill. The district attorney overseeing the case has not yet announced whether Holmes, now 25, can face the death penalty.

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Bibles used by King, Lincoln to be part of Obama’s second inauguration

Martin Luther King Jr. carried a black leather King James Bible on his journeys as a young pastor starting out in Montgomery, Ala. He turned to this “traveling Bible” for inspiration, his family says, as he fought for freedom and equality.

President Obama will put his hand over King’s well-worn Bible at his public swearing-in at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 21, the holiday celebrating the birthday of the slain civil rights leader. King’s Bible will be stacked with the burgundy velvet and gilded Bible used by President Abraham Lincoln at his first inauguration.

Obama chose the Lincoln Bible for his inauguration in 2009, making him the first president to do so since it was initially used in 1861. President Harry S. Truman also used two Bibles, as did Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard M. Nixon.

The announcement about the Bibles, to be made publicly Thursday, is part of the slow unspooling of inaugural details that fascinates lovers of ceremonial Americana.

Presidential inaugurations have become more filled with rites, and such decisions are especially weighty now at a time when the White House is aware that Americans are struggling to come together.

King’s family said in a statement that he would be “deeply moved” to see Obama use the traveling Bible on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, “and we hope it can be a source of strength for the President as he begins his second term.”

“With the Inauguration less than two weeks away, we join Americans across the country in embracing this opportunity to celebrate how far we have come, honor the legacy of Martin Luther King Jr. through service, and rededicate ourselves to the work ahead,” the statement added.

According to the Presidential Inaugural Committee, which organizes the swearing-in ceremony, King traveled with various books, including this Bible. “It was used for inspiration and preparing sermons and speeches, including during Dr. King’s time as pastor of Dexter Avenue Baptist Church” in Montgomery, the committee said in a statement.

Obama and Vice President Biden will be sworn in privately on Sunday, Jan. 20 — the date required by the Constitution. For that first ceremony, Obama will use the family Bible of his wife’s family. According to the inaugural committee, that Bible “was a gift from the First Lady’s father, Fraser Robinson III, to his mother, LaVaughn Delores Robinson, on Mother’s Day in 1958. Mrs. Robinson was the first African-American woman manager of a Moody Bible Institute’s bookstore.” That Bible was the only one Michelle Obama’s grandmother used after that, a committee statement said.

For both the private and then the Monday public ceremonies, Biden will be sworn in with a Bible that has been in his family since 1893: a five-inch-thick volume with a Celtic cross on the cover. He also used it for his swearings-in as a U.S. senator and in 2009 as vice president.

Some aspects of the inaugural ceremony have changed slightly over the decades. Having official prayers offered dates only to the 1930s, historians say. But presidents have used Bibles to be sworn in since George Washington, even though the Constitution does not require it. The Constitution also does not require the phrase “So help me God” at the end, but that has become standard, said Donald Ritchie, the historian of the U.S. Senate.

He also noted that the image of the president’s spouse holding the Bible dates only to Lady Bird Johnson doing so in 1965.

Chief justices of the Supreme Court now traditionally deliver the oath, but Ritchie said any federal official can do so.

Several non-Christian members of Congress have recently used other scriptures, including Rep. Keith Ellison, the first Muslim elected to Congress, in 2007. The Minnesota Democrat used a Koran owned by Thomas Jefferson.

Obama veered from tradition in one key aspect of the ceremony: He invited Myrlie Evers-Williams, widow of slain civil rights figure Medgar Evers, to deliver the invocation prayer. It will be the first time a woman, and a layperson rather than clergy, has done so.

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India's Kingfisher airline boss promises restart

MUMBAI: The boss of India's troubled Kingfisher airline has sought to allay fears about jobs in a rare communication to staff, which outlines plans to restart limited operations and win a foreign investment deal.

Kingfisher, whose operations have been grounded since October, lost permission to fly after a deadline to renew its suspended licence with the aviation regulator expired at the start of the new year.

Vijay Mallya's email, sent late Wednesday, expressed hopes for a limited re-start of flights from March this year, requiring funding of 6.5 billion rupees (US$118 million) which would be provided by the airline's parent UB Group.

The airline has submitted a detailed restart plan to the regulator, he said, also reiterating that there were "discussions with multiple investors", including Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways, to sell a stake in the airline.

"We remain confident that we will secure a deal," he wrote in the email seen by AFP.

The firm's shares jumped 9.96 per cent to 14.79 rupees on the Bombay Stock Exchange on Thursday.

Many staff are owed months of pay. Some of them have threatened to approach a court seeking formal closure of the airline if they are unconvinced about the management's revival plan and its ability to pay pending salaries.

Mallya said Kingfisher "was on safe ground" to renew its flying licence with the regulator, which can be applied for within two years after the date of expiry.

"We need to single-mindedly focus on being back in the air and to win back the confidence of our loyal guests," he wrote.

The Centre for Aviation, a Sydney-based consultancy, said in a recent report Kingfisher had accumulated losses of US$1.9 billion and debts of US$2.49 billion, including bank debts of US$1.1 billion.

- AFP/xq

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LeT chief Hafiz Saeed was present in PoK: Shinde

NEW DELHI: Union home minister Sushilkumar Shinde has said that visa agreement between India and Pakistan will be carried out as per schedule.

There will be no change in visa policy for Pakistan in view of the Tuesday's incident on Line of Control (LoC) in which two Indian soldiers were killed by Pakistan army with the body of one being badly mutilated.

Lashkar-e-Taiba founder Hafeez Saeed was present in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir some days before the Tuesday's LoC encounter, Shinde said. Shinde was speaking to mediapersons in New Delhi.

Earlier, India on Thursday outright rejected Pakistan's proposal for UN investigation into Tuesday's incident on Line of Control (LoC) in which two Indian soldiers were killed with the body of one being badly mutilated.

The issue figured at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) which was briefed by defence minister A K Antony on the incident in Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch sector on January eight and subsequent developments.

"We are certainly not going to agree to internationalise the issue or allow the United Nations to hold an inquiry. That demand is obviously rejected out of hand," finance minister P Chidambaram told a press conference after the meetings of the Union Cabinet and CCS here.

(With inputs from PTI)

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Embryonic Sharks Freeze to Avoid Detection

Jane J. Lee

Although shark pups are born with all the equipment they'll ever need to defend themselves and hunt down food, developing embryos still stuck in their egg cases are vulnerable to predators. But a new study finds that even these baby sharks can detect a potential predator, and play possum to avoid being eaten.

Every living thing gives off a weak electrical field. Sharks can sense this with a series of pores—called the ampullae of Lorenzini—on their heads and around their eyes, and some species rely on this electrosensory ability to find food buried in the seafloor. (See pictures of electroreceptive fish.)

Two previous studies on the spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula) and the clearnose skate (Raja eglanteria)—a relative of sharks—found similar freezing behavior in their young. But new research by shark biologist and doctoral student Ryan Kempster at the University of Western Australia has given scientists a more thorough understanding of this behavior.

It all started because Kempster wanted to build a better shark repellent. Since he needed to know how sharks respond to electrical fields, Kempster decided to use embryos. "It's very hard to test this in the field because you need to get repeated responses," he said. And you can't always get the same shark to cooperate multiple times. "But we could use embryos because they're contained within an egg case."

Cloaking Themselves

So Kempster got his hands on 11 brownbanded bamboo shark (Chiloscyllium punctatum) embryos and tested their reactions to the simulated weak electrical field of a predator. (Popular pictures: Bamboo shark swallowed whole—by another shark.)

In a study published today in the journal PLoS One, Kempster and his colleagues report that all of the embryonic bamboo sharks, once they reached later stages of development, reacted to the electrical field by ceasing gill movements (essentially, holding their breath), curling their tails around their bodies, and freezing.

A bamboo shark embryo normally beats its tail to move fresh seawater in and out of its egg case. But that generates odor cues and small water currents that can give away its position. The beating of its gills as it breathes also generates an electrical field that predators can use to find it.

"So it cloaks itself," said neuroecologist Joseph Sisneros, at the University of Washington in Seattle, who was not involved in the study. "[The embryo] shuts down any odor cues, water movement, and its own electrical signal."

Sisneros, who conducted the previous clearnose skate work, is delighted to see that this shark species also reacts to external electrical fields and said it would be great to see whether this is something all shark, skate, and ray embryos do.

Marine biologist Stephen Kajiura, at Florida Atlantic University, is curious to know how well the simulated electrical fields compare to the bamboo shark's natural predators—the experimental field was on the higher end of the range normally given off.

"[But] they did a good job with [the study]," Kajiura said. "They certainly did a more thorough study than anyone else has done."

Electrifying Protection?

In addition to the freezing behavior he recorded in the bamboo shark embryos, Kempster found that the shark pups remembered the electrical field signal when it was presented again within 40 minutes and that they wouldn't respond as strongly to subsequent exposures as they did initially.

This is important for developing shark repellents, he said, since some of them use electrical fields to ward off the animals. "So if you were using a shark repellent, you would need to change the current over a 20- to 30-minute period so the shark doesn't get used to that field."

Kempster envisions using electrical fields to not only keep humans safe but to protect sharks as well. Shark populations have been on the decline for decades, due partly to ending up as bycatch, or accidental catches, in the nets and on the longlines of fishers targeting other animals.

A 2006 study estimated that as much as 70 percent of landings, by weight, in the Spanish surface longline fleet were sharks, while a 2007 report found that eight million sharks are hooked each year off the coast of southern Africa. (Read about the global fisheries crisis in National Geographic magazine.)

"If we can produce something effective, it could be used in the fishing industry to reduce shark bycatch," Kempster said. "In [America] at the moment, they're doing quite a lot of work trying to produce electromagnetic fish hooks." The eventual hope is that if these hooks repel the sharks, they won't accidentally end up on longlines.

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Biden, NRA to Meet During Day 2 of Gun Talks

Vice President Joe Biden will start day two of this week's meetings on gun violence Thursday, and the participants in the latest round of talks will include two powerhouses in the gun industry -- the National Rifle Association and Wal-Mart, one of the largest sellers of firearms in the country.

Spokesmen for the NRA and Wal-Mart confirmed representatives from their organizations will be included in the meetings Thursday. Advocates for sportsmen, women's groups, wildlife groups and gun owners will also be there. The vice president is slated to meet with members of the entertainment industry in the evening.

James J. Baker, the NRA's top lobbyist, will attend the meeting on behalf of the organization. The NRA called for armed officers to be placed in every school after the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn. in December.

"We are sending a representative to hear what they have to say," Andrew Arulanandam, a spokesman for the NRA, said.

Wal-Mart initially turned down an invitation to participate in the talks but reversed its decision after it "underestimated the expectation to attend the meeting on Thursday in person," a spokesman said.

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"We take this issue very seriously and are committed staying engaged in this discussion as the administration and Congress work toward a consensus on the right path forward," David Tovar, vice president of corporate communications for Wal-Mart, said.

The latest meetings come one day after Biden held a first round of talks this week with gun safety advocate groups and victims and survivors of gun violence. Speaking to reporters before the meeting, the vice president expressed the administration's commitment to develop effective gun policy by considering all ideas. He suggested the administration would be ready to take executive action on the issue, which would not require help from Congress.

"We're here today to deal with a problem that requires our immediate action, urgent action. And the president and I are determined to take action," Biden told reporters before a meeting in his ceremonial office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. "I want to make it clear that we are not going to get caught up in the notion [that] unless we can do everything, we're going to do nothing."

"There are executive orders, executive action that can be taken. We haven't decided what that is yet, but we're compiling it all with the help the attorney general and all the rest of the cabinet members, as well as legislative action, we believe, is required," Biden said.

Colin Goddard, a survivor of the shooting at Virginia Tech University in 2007, participated in the meeting at the White House Wednesday and said the talks gave the groups "encouragement from the highest office in the country."

"I was really encouraged by seeing how focused and determined the administration is in seeing comprehensive changes to the gun violence in America," Goddard, who is now the assistant director for federal legislation at the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, told ABC News. "It was really great to see even the Vice President of the United States of America supporting us. He wants to see this done to the end and bringing us all to the table to share our personal stories, share our ideas about what our proposals could be."

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GAO calls on Postal Service to prefund retiree benefits

U.S. Postal Service officials and postal unions have long pushed Congress to relieve the agency of its obligation to prefund retiree health benefits. It’s a burden other agencies don’t share and one that officials say the Postal Service can’t afford. Defaults on prefunding payments total $11.1 billion.

But not everyone agrees that removing or substantially reducing the prefunding requirement is the best way out of the USPS hole.

A recent Government Accountability Office report says the “USPS should prefund its retiree health benefit liabilities to the maximum extent that its finances permit.”

The GAO said that deferring the prefunding payments “could increase costs for future ratepayers and increase the possibility that USPS may not be able to pay for some or all of its liability.”

The report said the Postal Service’s financial condition makes it difficult for the agency “to fully fund the remaining $48 billion unfunded liability over the remaining 44 years of the schedule” set up by the 2006 Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act.

USPS officials say they can pay $0.00. The Postal Service is losing $25 million a day.

“If Congress was to eliminate the requirement for USPS to pay down its unfunded liability on retiree health care, taxpayers would almost certainly pick up the bill,” said House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Darrell Issa (R-Calif.). “USPS needs to cut costs, not cheat taxpayers or its own employees.”

The GAO report gives something to both sides, saying that the USPS should prefund its retiree health benefits, while acknowledging that it currently is too broke to do it.

In a response included in the GAO report, Joseph Corbett, the USPS chief financial officer and executive vice president, said the Postal Service “does not have the financial resources to make the prefunding payments required by current law.”

He criticized the GAO for releasing a report that did not include the controversial USPS proposal to sponsor its own health-care plan, outside of the Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan that now covers postal workers.

“Allowing the Postal Service to gain control of its own health care program would save money, reduce or eliminate the current unfunded liability, and allow for better management of health care costs going forward,” Corbett said.

Fredric Rolando, president of the National Association of Letter Carriers, called on Congress to “reject the GAO’s policy myopia. . . . Government records show that 80 percent of all the USPS red ink stems directly from prefunding.”

Report: Close the digital divide

Uncle Sam needs to get with the digital program.

That’s the takeaway from a report — with the appropriate title #ConnectedGov — on the government’s use of technology and social media. It is being released Wednesday by the Partnership for Public Service, in collaboration with the Booz Allen Hamilton consulting firm.

The report identifies innovative digital programs in seven agencies, demonstrating that “there are places in government that are doing immensely creative and impactful things,” said Max Stier, president and chief executive of the Partnership.

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Japan's foreign minister on two-day visit to Singapore

SINGAPORE: Japan's Minister for Foreign Affairs Fumio Kishida will visit Singapore from Thursday till Friday.

This will be Mr Kishida's first official visit to Singapore in his current capacity.

During his visit, Mr Kishida will call on Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the Istana, and meet with Minister for Foreign Affairs and Law K Shanmugam.

Mr Shanmugam will also host Mr Kishida to lunch.

- CNA/de

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Enough proof of Pak army's involvement in Indian jawans' killing: Antony

NEW DELHI/KOLKATA: Outraged by the brutal killing of two of its soldiers by intruding Pakistani troops, India on Wednesday strongly protested to Pakistan, warning that the "unacceptable" incident will have adverse impact on the ties.

As strong reactions by the government and political parties came, Pakistan high commissioner Salman Bashir was summoned by foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai, who conveyed India's "deepest concern and protest" over yesterday's attack in which two Indian soldiers were killed and their bodies subjected to "barbaric and inhuman mutilation".

Pakistan was also asked to immediately investigate these actions that are in contravention of all norms of international conduct and ensure that these do not recur.

India's Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia spoke to his Pakistani counterpart Maj Gen Ashfaq Nadeem to complain about the attack. A Pakistani military official said in Islamabad that Gen Nadeem rejected Indian Army's contention of cross-Line of Control(LoC) firing by Pakistani troops and killing of any Indian soldier.

Referring to last month's Indo-Pak discussions on conventional CBMs, wherein maintaining the sanctity of the LoC, one of the most important CBMs between the two countries, was emphasised, Khurshid said,"therefore violation of (ceasefire) that itself is something which is a matter of great concern. And that would obviously, if not immediately, contained will have adverse impact on what we have been trying to do for such a long time."

In a gruesome attack, Pakistan regular soldiers crossed into Indian territory in Poonch sector of Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday and ambushed an Indian patrol killing two soldiers, one of whom was decapitated.

Khurshid also stressed the need "to make sure that whatever happened should not be escalated. We cannot and must not allow escalation of this very unwholesome event that has taken place."

Enough proof of Pak army's involvement in Indian jawans killing: Antony

Defence minister A K Antony said on Wednesday that there is ample evidence to prove that Pakistani troops were involved in the killing of two Indian Army jawans along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. According to Antony, the act was inhuman.

"I already condemned the incident before leaving Delhi. There is ample evidence of how they treated the two Indian Army soldiers. The act was inhuman and we have already taken up the matter with the Pakistani government. The government of India is taking up the issue with all stakeholders. The Director General (Military Operations) is keeping close watch on the developments and has also taken up the issue with his counterpart in Pakistan," the defence minister said in Kolkata before leaving for Delhi.

Antony was in Kolkata for the 47th Convocation of the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI). The defence minister is the chairman of the ISI Council. In his brief address, Antony pointed out how research carried out at the institute has applications in the security sector as well.

"Make use of your skills but ensure that values don't suffer. Society has high hopes from you. Do contribute to society. I would have wanted to spend more time here but I have several important meetings in Delhi and have to rush back. The situation is such that my coming to Kolkata became uncertain at one point of time," Antony said before leaving, midway through the programme.

(With inputs from PTI)

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